Below is a table ranking possible Republican Presidential Candidates ability to win in 2012 by using one measuring stick: Would they definitely carry today their home state against President Obama?
The table has been updated to remove Governor Huckabee who announced last night he would not run (predicted correctly here yesterday).
Surprisingly, I concluded that only two of 11 possible Republican Presidential candidates would clearly today beat President Obama in their home states.
Those are Governor/Ambassador Huntsman and Governor Daniels.
The rest are sure losers in their home states or no better than a toss up back home.
Here is the ranking, going from least likely to win their home state to most likely.
1. Trump (assuming New York)
2. Romney (Massachusetts)
4. Pawlenty (Minnesota)
5. Santorum (Pennsylvania)
6. Cain (Georgia)
7. Paul (Texas)--Toss Up
8. Gingrich (Georgia)--Toss Up
9. Palin (Alaska)--Toss Up
10. Daniels (Indiana)
11. Huntsman (Utah)
How predictive is home state strength for national Presidential success? Pretty good.
Vice President Gore proves that one can get the most popular votes, lose your home state, and lose the Presidency. George McGovern and Walter Mondale show that losing your home state or struggling to win it means you may well lose 49 states. McGovern lost South Dakota, his home state, and won just Massachusetts. Vice President Mondale barely carried Minnesota, his home state, against President Reagan and lost 49 other states.
The Home State Barometer says President Obama should want any opponent other than Huntsman or Daniels.